Important Nifty Analysis - Must Read

Nitin Shripad Joshi
Sep 4
2 min read

Nifty Weekly Chart: The chart displays a range of technical indicators including SMA and EMA lines. Fibonacci retracement levels highlight potential support and resistance zones, with current price movements near the 0.236 retracement level. The green trendline suggests potential upward momentum.

This is Nifty weekly chart with EMA 55 plotted on it which is still going up. Now some points as per Elliott Wave Theory. We will count current wave in 5 sub waves.

1. Wave 1 of 5 (impulse) started at a low 21743.65 on 07/04/2025 and ended at a high of 25669.25 (ATH) on 23/06/2025 giving total 3925.6 points in 77 days.

2. Wave A of 2 of 5 (correction - downward) started at a high of 25669.25 on 23/06/2025 and ended at a low of 24337.5 on 04/08/2025 with total points of 1331.75 in 42 days.

3. Wave B of 2 of 5 (Correction - upward) started at a low of 24337.5 on 04/08/2025 and ended at a high of 25163.65 on 18/08/2025 with total points of 826.15 in 14 days.

4. Now wave C of 2 of 5 started at a high of 25163.65 on 18/08/2025which is currently going on (correction - downwards) which may last for 42 days (assumption) and will give 1331.75 points downwards (assumption). If so, then it will end at 23831.90 on 29/09/2025. 50% correction as per above chart 23706.45. So, 23831.90 is near to that.

5. Right now, Nifty is above 38.2% correction which is 24169.65.

6. Now the question is will Nifty go down to 23831.90 in current scenario? Or wave 2 will terminate much earlier?

7. If you observe in chart, in last 5 weeks all weekly lows are almost same. So, is it a strong support on that small green line? If so, then entire wave 2 (correction) has ended at a low of 24432.70 on 01/08/2025 and wave 3 of 5 has begun.

To confirm end of correction we need following

1. Most important is Nifty should not break small green line.

2. SMA 5 should give buy signal on weekly basis which is in down mode.

3. Heikin Ashi chart should reverse to bullish pattern which is in bearish pattern at present.

If all above 3 points are satisfied, then only we can say correction has ended and wave 3 of 5 has started with a target of 25358.60 by 17/10/2025 approximately. Otherwise counting as per point No. 4 will continue.

Nitin Shripad Joshi

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